Scholars in later years would meticulously analyze the causes and trends behind the dissolution of the Soviet Union. At this juncture, however, almost no one could believe that this colossal red nation would collapse overnight.
Just as the assessment from the world's most failed former Soviet intelligence officer goes, "Whoever does not lament the dissolution of the Soviet Union lacks a conscience; whoever wishes to restore the past Soviet Union lacks sense."
(Second only to this, the second-most failed intelligence officer globally was James Bond from Britain, their exposure rates on a global scale were simply unbelievable.)
For Elena, if indeed the convergence of worldlines existed in this world, then this severe geopolitical catastrophe in 1991 was undeniably one of the most unshakable "inevitable" events in human history.
If she could participate in the monumental event of the Soviet Union's dissolution, Elena would never choose to swim against the tide and attempt to prevent it from happening.
Fundamentally, much like most time travelers, she belonged to the kind of individuals with a pragmatic conscience, with thoughts solely revolving around how to benefit from this major upheaval.
However, before entering the magical world—more precisely, before arriving at Gringotts—Elena hadn't devoted much attention to the Soviet Union's dissolution. After all, for her, all of that seemed too distant, and she was too young.
Trading inexpensive daily goods for expensive military industrial materials or emulating numerous financial giants dividing up the Soviet national economy weren't realms a ten-year-old girl in the Scottish Highlands could step into.
Yet... opportunity arrived, unexpectedly.
"What if... I want to loan from Gringotts, getting a certain Muggle currency?" Elena took a deep breath, suppressing her excitement, calmly addressing the fairy creature in front of her.
Wanting a loan from Gringotts in Muggle currency?
The fairy behind the counter rolled its eyes, revealing a hint of slyness, another self-proclaimed clever wizard.
As the only wizarding bank in the magical world, they encountered many of these self-important entities. Ignorant wizards never realized that fairies still held considerable influence over non-magical currency.
"Of course, but the fees we charge at Gringotts are not affordable to ordinary people. Alright, little girl, our information service to satisfy your curiosity is over. Hurry up and exchange your pounds into Galleons and leave!" The fairy impatiently replied, rubbing its pointed chin, considering it had shown enough patience, all for Dumbledore's sake.
Clap!
Elena unhesitatingly pulled out two banknotes from her pouch around her waist and slammed them onto the wooden table.
"I don't have Galleons, here's fifty pounds, which should be close to ten Galleons. Is this worth a few questions?"
"Oh~~ My dear Miss Kaslana, this is enough to ask questions for an entire afternoon. Andy Serkins is delighted to answer your questions."
Self-named Serkins, the fairy, brightened up, swiftly pinching the coins with its slender fingers, slowly pocketing them, wearing a smile, sitting up straight, adopting a humble expression as if ready to attentively listen.
"Outrageous, Serkins! Just answering a few simple questions for an uneducated little girl, and you shamelessly charge for it. This kind of behavior won't sustain long-term transactions." Galwicks, standing behind Elena, complained quite dissatisfied, retracting its empty right hand almost imperceptibly slower than Serkins due to its position.
"Shut up, Galwicks! If you disturb my transactions with guests again, I have the right to have the security throw you out!... Well, Miss Kaslana, please continue," Serkins threatened with an unpleasant tone, then turned to Elena with a smiling face, respectfully saying.
Elena smiled faintly and asked softly, "So, my question is, after getting the loan, is there a way to surpass the fifty-thousand-per-year limit and exchange Muggle currency into Galleons? Or exchange it into other currencies?"
"Well... that's..." Serkins, the fairy, looked hesitant, a bit reluctant to respond, fiddling with its index finger and thumb.
Truly... a realistic and adorable fairy.
Clap! Another fifty-pound note landed on the table.
Elena shrugged, finding the straightforwardness of these practical fairies sometimes more compatible with her character than the complexities of humans.
"Of course, no problem! Although the rules demand this, with just a small commission, we can assist you in an extra exchange. After all, Gringotts isn't only open to human wizards. Even if it's a fox, as long as it leaves a paw print, we can help with the exchange." (Note: Click for explanation.)
Serkins became even friendlier, almost looking at Elena's eyes as it would at Galleons, never having encountered such an extravagant yet naïve little witch.
"Oh? I see..."
The silver-haired girl glanced slowly around the magnificent central hall of Gringotts. With the affirmative response from the fairy in front of her, she felt every cell in her body exhilarate—this bank, disregarding national boundaries, could explode with terrifying benefits at this point in time.
Understand, even though the Soviet Union had shown signs of decline in recent years, as one of the two poles in the non-magical world, the Soviet ruble still held a strong currency value.
If Elena remembered correctly, until mid-August, the exchange rate between the dollar and the ruble had remained stable at 【1 USD: 1.8~2.0 rubles】.
However, after the permanent lowering of the Soviet flag on Christmas this year, by the end of 1991, the exchange rate between the dollar and the ruble would abruptly shift to 【1 USD: 170 rubles】.
Then came the suffocating shock therapy from the Russian government—starting January 2, 1992, 90% of consumer prices and 80% of production materials were deregulated. Simultaneously, restrictions on income growth were removed, public officials' wages increased by 90%, pensioners' allowances reached 900 rubles per month, family allowances and unemployment benefits skyrocketed.
By April, domestic consumer prices in Russia had risen 65 times compared to December 1991. Essentially, in terms of purchasing power, the ruble had devalued by 65 times. And thereafter... (Okay, stretching a thesis is kind of guilty; if interested, ask the search engine for the rest.)
To sum up, disregarding politics and state games, purely from a financial perspective, all those stock market manipulations and short selling were weak. The simplest and most direct way to profit was to borrow rubles massively and convert the obtained rubles into any non-Soviet currency, like dollars or Galleons.
Then? Just wait. Sit back at Hogwarts, sipping tea leisurely, and wait for the ruble to collapse completely. Then convert the dollars or Galleons back into rubles, repay the debt, and reap profits a thousandfold.
(For a simple example, if your dad borrowed 11,700 rubles at the moment, exchanged it for 6,500 USD. When the exchange rate crashes to 1 USD: 6,500 rubles, he'd just need a maximum of 3 USD to clear all debts, including interest
.)
Elena thoughtfully stroked her smooth left hand. Just as Dumbledore had said, unless deliberately provoked, there was no trace of any unbreakable oath left.
To perpetuate a school indefinitely, the two most crucial aspects were people and money. People— as long as human society existed, there would always be a source of students. And financially, she seemed to have found a path, at least a way to secure a lifetime’s funds.
Once she settled all this, only two of the oaths she bore would remain. She didn't want to carry the weight of perpetuating a massive school in the long, challenging journey of her future life.
The only issue was...
Elena glanced at the old wizard behind her, listening with evident curiosity to her question—she'd have to wait until Dumbledore wasn't around.
"Anyway, help me quickly exchange this pocket money into Galleons. Time is money, my friend. We have many important things to do later." Elena took out a stack of pounds from her pouch, emphasizing "we" and "later" a bit more, subtly signaling Serkins to look at Dumbledore standing behind her.
—Whatever conclusions it might draw, likely, they'd be beneficial to her.
The urgent task now was to swiftly conclude this shopping in Diagon Alley and send Dumbledore away.
It was July 31st, 1991, 9 AM.
Time left for Elena was running short.